基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的牽引變電所主接線可靠性評(píng)估 

尹維恒，解紹鋒，陳民武，梁澤川，鄧大磊 
西南交通大學(xué) 電氣工程學(xué)院，四川 成都 610031 
 

摘 要：貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)是研究不確定性問(wèn)題的重要方法之一，把貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)法用到牽引變電所的可靠性評(píng)估中，結(jié)合牽引變電所電氣主接線的故障樹(shù)和最小路來(lái)建立貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)。通過(guò)故障樹(shù)的貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)計(jì)算了其可靠性指標(biāo)，能夠有效地識(shí)別系統(tǒng)的薄弱環(huán)節(jié)，實(shí)現(xiàn)了牽引變電所可靠性的定性和定量評(píng)估。用基于最小路的貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)對(duì)上面的可靠性指標(biāo)進(jìn)行了驗(yàn)證，為牽引變電所可靠性評(píng)估提供了新的方法。
關(guān)鍵詞：貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)；牽引變電所；可靠性評(píng)估；故障樹(shù)；最小路
中圖分類號(hào)：TM922.4 文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼：A 文章編號(hào)：1007-3175(2013)08-0029-05

Reliability Assessment of Main Electric Connection of Traction Substation Based on Bayesian Network 

YIN Wei-heng, XIE Shao-feng, CHEN Min-wu, LIANG Ze-chuan, DENG Da-lei 
School of Electrical Engineering, Southwest Jiaotong University, Chengdu 610031, China 
 

Abstract: Bayesian network (BN) is one of the most effective tools to study uncertain problems. This paper used BN method to evaluate the reliability of traction substation. The fault tree and the minimal path of main electric connection of traction substation were combined to build Bayesian network. This paper calculated its reliability index through Bayesian network of the fault tree, which could effectively identify the weakness of the system, to realize the qualitative and quantitative assessment of reliability in traction substation. The mentioned reliability index above is verified by Bayesian networks based on the minimal path, which provides a new method for the assessment of traction substation reliability.
Key words: Bayesian network; traction substation; reliability assessment; fault tree; minimal path

參考文獻(xiàn)
[1] 李群湛，賀建閩.牽引供電系統(tǒng)分析[M].成都：西南交通大學(xué)出版社，2007.
[2] 張?zhí)@薔.故障樹(shù)分析在電力系統(tǒng)可靠性研究中的應(yīng)用[J].華東電力，2005，33(2)：14-17.
[3] 陳紹寬，毛保華，何天健，等.基于事故樹(shù)分析的鐵路牽引供電系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)價(jià)[J].鐵道學(xué)報(bào)，2006，28(6)：123-129.
[4] 盧明銀，徐人平.系統(tǒng)可靠性[M].北京：機(jī)械工業(yè)出版社，2008.
[5] Guo H T, Yang X H.Automatic creation of Markov models for reliability assessment of safety instrumented systems[J].Reliability Engineering & System Safety，2008，93(6)：829-837.
[6] Naess A,Leira B J,Batsevych O.System reliability analysis by enhanced Monte Carlo simulation[J].Structural Safety，2009，31(5)：349-355.
[7] 陳民武.基于GO法的高速鐵路牽引變電所可靠性評(píng)估[J].電力系統(tǒng)保護(hù)與控制，2011，39(18)：56-61. 
[8] 謝斌.貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)在可靠性分析中的應(yīng)用[D].成都：西南交通大學(xué)，2004.
[9] 朱永利，王艷，耿蘭芹，等.基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的電網(wǎng)故障診斷[J].電力自動(dòng)化設(shè)備，2007，27(7)：33-37.
[10] Bobbio A，Portinale L，Minichino M，et al．Comparing fault trees and Bayesian networks for dependability analysis[C]//The 18th International Conference on Computer Safety，Reliability and Security，1999. 
[11] 吳欣，郭創(chuàng)新.基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的電力系統(tǒng)故障診斷方法[J].電力系統(tǒng)及其自動(dòng)化學(xué)報(bào)，2005，17(4)：11-15.
[12] 周曙.基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)的電力系統(tǒng)故障診斷方法研究[D].成都：西南交通大學(xué)，2010.
[13] 霍利民.基于貝葉斯網(wǎng)絡(luò)的電力系統(tǒng)可靠性評(píng)估[D].保定：華北電力大學(xué)，2004.
[14] 林飛.牽引供電系統(tǒng)可靠性指標(biāo)體系與可靠性分析[D].成都：西南交通大學(xué)，2006.
[15] 郭永基.可靠性工程原理[M].北京：清華大學(xué)出版社，2002.