Suzhou Electric Appliance Research Institute
期刊號(hào): CN32-1800/TM| ISSN1007-3175

Article retrieval

文章檢索

首頁(yè) >> 文章檢索 >> 最新索引

政府激勵(lì)機(jī)制下新能源技術(shù)發(fā)展三方演化博弈分析

來(lái)源:電工電氣發(fā)布時(shí)間:2024-08-01 15:01 瀏覽次數(shù):190

政府激勵(lì)機(jī)制下新能源技術(shù)發(fā)展三方演化博弈分析

周路遙,劉富州,袁博文,陸宇軒,吳天雄
(國(guó)網(wǎng)江蘇省電力有限公司鹽城供電分公司,江蘇 鹽城 224000)
 
    摘 要:伴隨著參與電力市場(chǎng)的主體類(lèi)型數(shù)量逐漸上升,經(jīng)典的優(yōu)化理論與常規(guī)博弈模型已經(jīng)很難解決受多種因素影響的多主體行為決策模型。針對(duì)目前市場(chǎng)環(huán)境下新能源發(fā)電商與火力發(fā)電商的集中競(jìng)價(jià)行為,建立了競(jìng)爭(zhēng)型代理模式下的三主體演化博弈模型。以參與博弈的主體有限理性以及市場(chǎng)化環(huán)境下有限信息,通過(guò)理論推導(dǎo)出了各主體在不同階段、不同政策下的最優(yōu)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)策略,通過(guò)算例分析了發(fā)電商和政府部門(mén)的演化結(jié)果、策略應(yīng)對(duì)以及其中影響決策的主要因素,驗(yàn)證了演化博弈在市場(chǎng)背景下多主體最優(yōu)策略分析中的有效性,并為發(fā)電側(cè)主體的行為和政府部門(mén)的政策提供了建議。
    關(guān)鍵詞: 發(fā)電競(jìng)價(jià);發(fā)電側(cè);演化博弈;多群體策略均衡
    中圖分類(lèi)號(hào):F206 ;TM61     文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼:A     文章編號(hào):1007-3175(2024)07-0001-10
 
The Analysis of Tripartite Evolutionary Game of New Energy Technology
Development Under the Government Incentive Mechanism
 
ZHOU Lu-yao, LIU Fu-zhou, YUAN Bo-wen, LU Yu-xuan, WU Tian-xiong
(State Grid Jiangsu Electric Power Co., Ltd. Yancheng Power Supply Company, Yancheng 224000, China)
 
    Abstract: With the gradual increase of the number of entities participating in the electricity market, it was difficult for classical optimization theory and classic game model to solve the multi-agent behavior decision-making model affected by multiple factors. In view of the centralized bidding behavior of new energy power generators and thermal power generators in the current market environment, a three-subject evolutionary game model under the competitive agency model was established. Based on the limited rationality of the subjects participating in the game and the limited information in the market-oriented environment, the optimal competition strategy of each subject in different stages and different policies were theoretically deduced. This paper analyzes the evolution results, strategic responses and the main factors affecting the decision-making of power generators and government departments through examples, it verifies the effectiveness of evolutionary game in the analysis of multi-agent optimal strategies in the market context, provides suggestions for the behavior of generation side and the policies of government departments.
    Key words: power generation bidding; generation side; evolutionary game; multi-group strategy equilibrium
 
參考文獻(xiàn)
[1] 國(guó)家能源局. 國(guó)家能源局綜合司關(guān)于開(kāi)展跨省跨區(qū)電力交易與市場(chǎng)秩序?qū)m?xiàng)監(jiān)管工作的通知[R/OL] .(2023-10-27)[2024-03-16].http://zfxxgk.nea.gov.cn/2023-10/31/c_1310748175.htm.
[2] 中華人民共和國(guó)國(guó)家發(fā)展和改革委員會(huì). 國(guó)家能源局關(guān)于建立煤電容量電價(jià)機(jī)制的通知[R/OL].(2023-11-10)[2024-03-16].https://www.ndrc.gov.cn/xwdt/tzgg/202311/t20231110_1361899.html.
[3] 國(guó)家能源局. 新型能源體系建設(shè)提速[R/OL] . (2024-01-12)[2024-03-16].http://www.nea.gov.cn/2024-01/12/c_1310759961.htm.
[4] 程樂(lè)峰. 電力市場(chǎng)多群體策略博弈的長(zhǎng)期演化穩(wěn)定均衡理論研究[D]. 廣州:華南理工大學(xué),2019.
[5] NASH J F . Equilibrium Points in N-Person Games[J].Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences,1950,36(1) :48-49.
[6] 于丹,王斯一,張彩虹,等. 電廠和政府行為策略演化博弈與仿真研究——基于農(nóng)林生物質(zhì)與煤耦合發(fā)電產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展視角[J]. 北京林業(yè)大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(社會(huì)科學(xué)版),2024,23(1) :62-70.
[7] 盧強(qiáng),陳來(lái)軍,梅生偉. 博弈論在電力系統(tǒng)中典型應(yīng)用及若干展望[J] . 中國(guó)電機(jī)工程學(xué)報(bào),2014,34(29) :5009-5017.
[8] 王歌, 張奇, 李彥, 等. 區(qū)塊鏈共享模式下的分布式光伏擴(kuò)散演化模擬[J] . 系統(tǒng)工程學(xué)報(bào),2024,39(2) :189-199.
[9] 閆麗梅,曾家威,徐建軍,等. 含電動(dòng)汽車(chē)和光伏的配電網(wǎng)演化動(dòng)態(tài)博弈調(diào)度策略[J] . 太陽(yáng)能學(xué)報(bào),2024,45(5) :316-323.
[10] 許禮剛,劉榮福,陳磊,等. 前景理論視角下廢舊動(dòng)力電池回收監(jiān)管演化博弈分析[J]. 重慶理工大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)),2024,38(1) :290-297.
[11] 程樂(lè)峰,余濤. 發(fā)電市場(chǎng)長(zhǎng)期競(jìng)價(jià)均衡自發(fā)形成過(guò)程中的一般多策略演化博弈決策行為研究[J]. 中國(guó)電機(jī)工程學(xué)報(bào),2020,40(21) :6936-6955.
[12] 楊輝,莫峻. 發(fā)電側(cè)企業(yè)群體間競(jìng)價(jià)行為的隨機(jī)演化博弈[J]. 電網(wǎng)技術(shù),2021,45(9) :3389-3397.
[13] 彭春華,錢(qián)錕,閆俊麗. 新能源并網(wǎng)環(huán)境下發(fā)電側(cè)微分演化博弈競(jìng)價(jià)策略[J] . 電網(wǎng)技術(shù),2019,43(6) :2002-2009.
[14] STOFT Steven.Power System Economics—Designing Markets for Electricity[M].New York :Wiley-IEEE Press,2002.