Suzhou Electric Appliance Research Institute
期刊號: CN32-1800/TM| ISSN1007-3175

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灰色理論在企業(yè)試驗變電站負荷管理中的應(yīng)用

來源:電工電氣發(fā)布時間:2016-03-14 11:14 瀏覽次數(shù):9

灰色理論在企業(yè)試驗變電站負荷管理中的應(yīng)用 

楊祥 
(蘇州西門子電器有限公司,江蘇 蘇州 215129) 
 

摘 要: 根據(jù)企業(yè)變電站同比一定時期內(nèi)的負荷用電量統(tǒng)計,運用灰色理論對其建立基于改進殘差灰色模型和等維新息灰色模型的灰色組合預(yù)測模型,利用模型預(yù)測出來的結(jié)果對企業(yè)變電站的用電負荷進行有效管理與控制。實例證明,運用灰色理論模型可實現(xiàn)精確到月度的變電站中短期用電負荷預(yù)測,對企業(yè)用戶和電力管理部門進行負荷管理、調(diào)度和控制具有重要意義。
關(guān)鍵詞: 灰色理論;變電站;組合預(yù)測;負荷管理
中圖分類號:TM63 文獻標識碼:A 文章編號:1007-3175(2015)03-0041-03


Application of Grey Theory in Load Management of Enterprise Test Transformer Substation 

YANG Xiang 
(Siemens Electrical Apparatus Ltd, Suzhou 215129, China) 
 

Abstract: According to the load power consumption statistics of enterprise substation on year-on-year basis, the combined grey forecasting model was set up based on the optimized residual error grey model and equal dimension and new information grey model. The predictable result of the combined grey model could be applied to carry out effective management and control for the power consumption of enterprise substation. The example proves that the medium-term and short-term load forecasting of substation is accurated to month by adopting the grey model, which makes great significance to the load management, dispatch and control for enterprise customers and electric power administrative department.
Key words: grey theory; substation; combined forecasting; load management


參考文獻
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