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期刊號: CN32-1800/TM| ISSN1007-3175

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基于CNN-LSTM-AM模型的短期電力負(fù)荷預(yù)測研究

來源:電工電氣發(fā)布時間:2025-05-27 15:27瀏覽次數(shù):13

基于CNN-LSTM-AM模型的短期電力負(fù)荷預(yù)測研究

王生1,張和茂1,王曉榮2
(1 山西大同大學(xué) 機(jī)電工程學(xué)院,山西 大同 037000;
2 國網(wǎng)河北省電力有限公司承德供電公司,河北 承德 067000)
 
    摘 要:為應(yīng)對氣象因素變化時電力負(fù)荷波動對電力系統(tǒng)穩(wěn)定性的影響,探究了一種引入注意力機(jī)制的 CNN-LSTM 組合模型來預(yù)測短期電力負(fù)荷的波動。電力負(fù)荷受多維度氣候因素的復(fù)雜耦合影響,為有效表征這些非線性、時變的氣候-負(fù)荷關(guān)聯(lián)特性,構(gòu)建了融合溫度、降水量、濕度和風(fēng)速的多特征輸入模型。采用卷積神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)(CNN)捕捉數(shù)據(jù)中的局部氣候模式,通過滑動窗口機(jī)制提取關(guān)鍵氣象事件的時空特征;將特征向量輸入長短期記憶(LSTM)網(wǎng)絡(luò),其門控機(jī)制可有效建模氣候因素與負(fù)荷響應(yīng)的延時效應(yīng);引入注意力機(jī)制(AM)動態(tài)量化各氣候要素的時序重要性。仿真實(shí)驗(yàn)對比結(jié)果表明,CNN-LSTMAM 模型比傳統(tǒng) LSTM 和 CNN-LSTM 模型具有更好的預(yù)測精度。
    關(guān)鍵詞: 卷積神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò);長短期記憶;注意力機(jī)制;電力負(fù)荷預(yù)測
    中圖分類號:TM715     文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識碼:A     文章編號:1007-3175(2025)05-0057-05
 
Research on Short-Term Power Load Forecasting Based on
CNN-LSTM-AM Model
 
WANG Sheng1, ZHANG He-mao1, WANG Xiao-rong2
(1 College of Mechanical and Electrical Engineering, Shanxi Datong University, Datong 037000, China;
2 Chengde Power Supply Company of State Grid Hebei Electric Power Co., Ltd, Chengde 067000, China)
 
    Abstract: In order to cope with the influence of power load fluctuation on the stability of power system when meteoro logical factors change, a CNN-LSTM combination model with attention mechanism was explored to predict the fluctuation of short-term power load. The power load was affected by the complex coupling of multi-dimensional climate factors, in order to effectively characterize these nonlinear and time-varying climate-load correlation characteristics, a multi-feature input model integrating temperature, precipitation, humidity and wind speed was constructed.This paper used the convolutional neural network(CNN) to capture the local climate patterns in the data, and the time-conditioning characteristics of key meteorological events were extracted through the sliding window mechanism. Then, the feature vectors were fed into the long short-term memory (LSTM) network, and its gating mechanism can effectively model the delay effect of climate factors and load response.Finally, the attention mechanism (AM) was introduced to dynamically quantify the temporal importance of each climate element. Through the comparison of simulation experiments, the results show that the CNN-LSTM-AM model has better prediction accuracy than the traditional LSTM and CNN-LSTM models.
    Key words: convolutional neural network; long short-term memory; attention mechanism; power load forecasting
 
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